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Using hospital data for monitoring the dynamics of COVID 19 in France

Marc Lavielle 1
1 XPOP - Modélisation en pharmacologie de population
CMAP - Centre de Mathématiques Appliquées - Ecole Polytechnique, Inria Saclay - Ile de France
Abstract : The objective of this article is to show how daily hospital data can be used to monitor the evolution of the COVID-19 epidemic in France. A piecewise defined dynamic model allows to fit very well the available hospital admission, death and discharge data. The change-points detected correspond to moments when the dynamics of the epidemic changed abruptly. It is therefore a surveillance tool, not a forecasting tool. In other words, it can be used effectively to warn of a restart of epidemic activity, but it is not designed to assess the impact of a new lockdown or the emergence of a new variant. The model, data and fits are implemented in an interactive web application.
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Preprints, Working Papers, ...
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https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03321804
Contributor : Marc Lavielle Connect in order to contact the contributor
Submitted on : Wednesday, August 18, 2021 - 11:02:30 AM
Last modification on : Friday, August 20, 2021 - 3:27:06 AM

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  • HAL Id : hal-03321804, version 1

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Marc Lavielle. Using hospital data for monitoring the dynamics of COVID 19 in France. 2021. ⟨hal-03321804⟩

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